Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
