A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
